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2019 Elections: US predicts violence in Nigeria

The United States Government has expressed fear that the Nigeria's general elections scheduled for 2019 are likely to be character...



The United States Government has expressed fear that the Nigeria's general elections scheduled for 2019 are likely to be characterised by violence.

It said the conduct of the elections could have significant consequences for the democratic trajectory of Nigeria, West Africa, and the entire continent.

The US however said the public disturbance that the elections would cause might not be "large-scale nationwide conflict" but "localised violence."

The US Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of African Affairs, Tibor Nagy, disclosed this in his presentation during the US Congress hearing on Nigeria's forthcoming elections in Washington DC on Thursday.

The President of the Senate, Bukola Saraki; Vice Chairman, Senate Committee on Media and Public Affairs, Ben Murray-Bruce; and the Chairman, House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs, Nnena Ukeje, were present at the hearing titled, "Nigeria at a Crossroads: The Upcoming Elections."


Our source obtained a copy of Nagy's speech on Friday.

Nagy, who is a member of President Donald Trump's administration and his lead foreign policy adviser for Africa, said the Department of State agreed with the view that Nigeria's 2019 general elections would serve as critical test.

He said, "I can tell you from my impressions during my travels and my previous service in Nigeria that I fear there will be some violence around these elections, as has been the case with previous elections.

"I do not anticipate large-scale nation-wide conflict, but rather localised violence.

"We are already seeing increased tensions and polarisation as the election approaches. We assess that politicians are turning to narratives of identity politics in an attempt to improve their popularity, with potentially serious consequences for national unity.

"However, Nigeria's political system and society have weathered such tensions before."

Nagy said the US government took the risk of any loss of human life during the elections seriously.

To this end, he said when he was in Nigeria, he asked officials from both major political parties to sign pledges that their candidates would conduct peaceful campaigns.

He noted that the major candidates had now signed a peace pact.

Rivers, Borno, Benue, Kano listed as hotspots

He listed states that might experience violence during the elections to include Rivers, Borno, Benue, Plateau and Kano.

He added, "In assessing potential 'hotspots' for violence, we look at places that are historically volatile around elections such as Rivers and Borno states.

"We look at states that are currently tense, especially if state-level politics are contentious like those in Benue, Plateau, as well as those in high-stakes locations with large populations such as Kano.

"We regularly engage with civil society organisations working in these 'hotspots' and support their peacebuilding efforts. USAID programmes and our public diplomacy campaigns also support peace campaigns across the country, such as #VoteNotFight.

"Through our YALI Network Nigeria campaign, Nigerians have made over 10,000 pledges to boost voter participation, reject violence, and vote with integrity."

On expectations and concerns, Nagy said the US government was monitoring and messaging – both publicly and privately – to mitigate a few key areas of risk that could jeopardise a free and fair process.

He listed the areas of concerns to include potential attacks on the legitimacy of the Independent National Electoral Commission and the electoral process for political gain; intimidation and partisanship by security forces; and heightened insecurity, terrorist attacks on electoral institutions, or violence towards voters, observers, or electoral officials.

Others are inability of large numbers of Internally Displaced Persons or persons with disabilities to vote; voter suppression, the use of armed gangs for voter intimidation as well as wide-spread vote buying that challenges the integrity of the electoral process.

According to him, the US government will be watching closely for instigators of violence or those attempting to undermine the democratic process.

He added that the US was helping Nigeria to strengthen its democratic institutions and processes through diplomacy and robust public engagement.

While saying that the US does not support any candidate, he said the government "supports a democratic process that is free, fair, transparent, peaceful, and reflects the will of the Nigerian people."

Nagy said only Nigerians could determine lasting solutions and a path forward toward peace and stability.

"2019 will be a significant year for Nigerian democracy – it has been 20 years since the country returned to democratic rule and this election's youngest voters have never known a Nigeria without democracy," he added.

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